A multi-decade track record. Not a backtest.

HOW OUTCOMES ARE RESOLVED

Each call is checked every day until its target date: the predicted date in the dispatch's forecast when it has one, otherwise the last day of the stated horizon. When part of a call's predicted range is at least its asset-class threshold from the entry price in the predicted direction, the call is marked CONFIRMED as soon as the price reaches that part of the range, judged on each trading day's high and low after the day it was published. If it hasn't reached that part of the range by the target date, it is marked INVALIDATED when the price has closed at or beyond the threshold against the predicted direction, and INCONCLUSIVE otherwise. Any other call, including one whose predicted range doesn't reach its threshold, is marked CONFIRMED when the price on its target date has moved at or beyond its asset-class threshold from the entry price in the predicted direction, INVALIDATED when it has moved that far against it, and INCONCLUSIVE in between. An editor can also resolve a call earlier. A call withdrawn after it was filed stays in the ledger, marked RETRACTED, and is left out of the accuracy figures. Where a call's forecast also shows a turn the other way inside its window, we record that swing and report whether it was reached, separately from the call's own result.